Acme, Mich.— U.S. auto sales will remain healthy for the next four years, economists said Tuesday.

Speaking at a panel on the second day of the Center for Automotive Research’s annual Management Briefing Seminars, forecasters predicted about 17 million new cars and trucks will be sold annually in the coming years, a number that should remain consistent through 2018 as consumer confidence improves and buyers look to replace old cars.

“I think today, things are going generally well,” said Itay Michaeli, director of Citi Investment Research and Analysis. “We’re in a cycle that’s pretty strong through 2018.”

Michaeli said sales could be even more robust, but a lack of younger buyers will keep vehicle sales this year around 16 million.

And those who do buy are purchasing fewer cars, Michaeli said. That drop in density has been a boon for higher-priced vehicles, because by not buying multiple cars, customers have more money to spend on one, he said.

Ford Motor Co.’s senior economist, Emily Kolinski Morris, said young buyers are delaying buying cars because of economic factors like high student loans. She predicted between 16.3 million and 16.8 million cars and trucks will be sold this year.

When millennials do buy cars, they have very specific buying habits, said National Automobile Dealers Association chief economist Steven Szakaly. Most young buyers don’t go to multiple dealers, and would prefer to do their car-buying online, which creates a challenge for auto companies, he said. “Automakers need to make that transition for purchasers as seamless as possible and as incentivized as possible,” he said.

Szakaly predicts the sale of 16 million to 16.2 million vehicles this year and said the industry should grow until at least 2018, when fuel economy regulations could drive prices up. “It’s tough to think of consumers being willing to pay $3,000 to $7,000 more for the same car because someone in Washington, D.C., says they need to buy it,” he said.

Last month, Chrysler Group LLC, Ford and General Motors Co. all posted year-over-year July sales gains, led by Chrysler’s nearly 20 percent rise over July 2013. U.S. auto sales overall increased 9.1 percent in July, as consumers bought nearly 1.44 million new cars, trucks and SUVs, according to Autodata Corp.

Standard & Poor’s said in a research note it expects U.S. auto sales to top its prior forecast of 16.1 million and remain “steady” for the next 12 to 18 months.

Sales have been steadily rising since 2010 after falling to 10.6 million in 2009. Last year, sales were 15.9 million and in July sales were up 9 percent. More buyers are opting for SUVs and crossovers.

“We believe that consumers will continue to replace aging vehicles with newer and better models,” said Standard & Poor’s analyst Nishit Madlani. “The combination of relatively low interest rates and some cash rebates for vehicle purchases should also boost sales, and, along with the recovering housing market, lend support to steady light-vehicle sales for the next 12-18 months.”

Article by Michael Martinez published in The Detroit News