Lack of Strength in January Could Preview a 2019 Market with Less Momentum than in 2018

Black Book, a division of Hearst that provides industry-leading used vehicle valuation and residual value forecast solutions, released its Used Vehicle Retention Index for January (115.4), falling -0.7% from December’s listing of 116.3. The Index has now declined two months in a row. Click here to obtain a copy of the latest index data.

The Index decline was nearly across-the-board for almost all segments, with only Compact and Mid-Size Cars showing modest gains (+0.11% and +0.03%, respectively). 

There were a number of segments with over -1.0% declines, including Minivan, Small Pickup, Mid-Size and Full-Size Luxury CUV/SUV, Sporty Car, Sub-Compact Car, Near Luxury Car, and Compact Crossover SUV. 

 “After a strong performance in 2018, the Index has now declined for two straight months. We believe this could be a pre-cursor to a 2019 market that may show slightly larger depreciation overall compared with that in 2018,” said Anil Goyal, Executive Vice President, Operations. “It is interesting to note that used sedans are still in demand highlighting the affordability concerns of vehicle ownership.”

The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published Wholesale Average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically-equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition. The Index offers an accurate, representative, and unbiased view of the strength of today’s used vehicle market values.

The Index dates to January 2005, where Black Book published a benchmark index value of 100.0 for the market. During 2008, the index dropped by 14.1% while during 2016, the index fell by just 6.4%. During 2011, the index rose strongly from 113.3 to 123.0 by the end of the year as the economy picked up steam and used vehicle values rose higher. It continued to remain relatively stable, rising slightly until May of 2014 when it hit a peak of 128.1.

To obtain a copy of the latest Black Book Wholesale Value Index, please click here. 

About Black Book

Black Book® is best known in the automotive industry for providing timely, independent and accurate vehicle pricing information, and is available to industry-qualified users through online subscription products, mobile applications and licensing agreements. Since 1955 Black Book has continuously evolved to ensure that it achieves its goal of delivering mission-critical information to its customers, along with the insight necessary to successfully buy, sell, and lend. Black Book data is published daily by National Auto Research, a division of Hearst, and the company maintains offices in Georgia, Florida, and Maryland as well as the Canadian Black Book in Toronto. For more information, please visit BlackBook.com or call 800.554.1026.

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