Index Should Begin To Feel Downward Pressures For Remainder of Year From Falling Demand

Black Book, a division of Hearst that provides industry-leading used vehicle valuation and residual value forecast solutions, released its Used Vehicle Retention Index for May (114.4), a 0.7% change from April (113.6). The increase marked the first monthly rise dating back to October. Click here to obtain a copy of the latest index data.

With a strong finish to the spring market visible in May, many car segments saw their index position strengthen, while a handful of luxury segments declined. Sub-Compact Cars saw the strongest month at an increase of 0.85%, followed by Sporty Cars (0.72%), Mid-Size Cars (0.65%), and Full-Size Cars (0.61%).

The Luxury Car segment declined -0.94% during May, followed by Prestige Luxury Cars at -0.66%.

Trucks, SUVs and Crossover segments remained largely unchanged during May, but are expected to see retention remain firm as demand shifts away from cars following the spring tax season.

“We don’t expect the strong spring season to influence the trend in the coming months. The overall depreciation to fall further in 2019 compared with last year,” said Anil Goyal, Executive Vice President, Operations. “However, all bets are off if tariff threats become reality, significantly impacting the auto industry.”

The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published Wholesale Average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically-equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition. The Index offers an accurate, representative, and unbiased view of the strength of today’s used vehicle market values.

The Index dates to January 2005, where Black Book published a benchmark index value of 100.0 for the market. During 2008, the index dropped by 14.1% while during 2016, the index fell by just 6.4%. During 2011, the index rose strongly from 113.3 to 123.0 by the end of the year as the economy picked up steam and used vehicle values rose higher. It continued to remain relatively stable, rising slightly until May of 2014 when it hit a peak of 128.1.

To obtain a copy of the latest Black Book Wholesale Value Index, please click here. 

About Black Book

Black Book® is best known in the automotive industry for providing timely, independent and accurate vehicle pricing information, and is available to industry-qualified users through online subscription products, mobile applications and licensing agreements. Since 1955 Black Book has continuously evolved to ensure that it achieves its goal of delivering mission-critical information to its customers, along with the insight necessary to successfully buy, sell, and lend. Black Book data is published daily by National Auto Research, a division of Hearst, and the company maintains offices in Georgia, Florida, and Maryland as well as the Canadian Black Book in Toronto. For more information, please visit BlackBook.com or call 800.554.1026.