Highlights:

1. December 2017 and January 2018 saw a significant drop in lease originations as dealers and lenders placed more emphasis on incentives for auto loans.
2. Subprime accounts saw a 9.5% decrease through January 2018, the lowest subprime share since 2006.

Auto Originations Observations Originations through January 2018 reported as of March 2018

• Auto: Total 2.01 million auto loans and leases, totaling $44.1 billion, have been originated year-to-date. This is a 4.1% decrease in accounts and a 2.0% decline in balances over this time last year.
• 2017 marked the third highest year on record for the number of auto accounts originated. 2016 is the record holder, followed by 2015.
• 386,500 auto loans and leases have been originated YTD to consumers with a VantageScore® 3.0 credit score below 620. These are generally considered subprime accounts. This is a 9.5% decrease from January 2017. These newly-issued loans have a corresponding total balance of $6.9 billion, a 9.4% decrease year-over-year.
• Through January, 19.2% of auto loans and leases were issued to consumers with a subprime credit score. This is the lowest subprime share since 2006. In 2017 the YTD share was 20.3%.
• The average origination balance for all auto loans and leases issued in January 2018 was $22,205. This is a 3.5% increase over January 2017. The average subprime loan amount was $18,128. This is a 1.4% increase compared to January 2017.

Auto Lease Originations Observations Originations through January 2018 reported as of March 2018:

• 256,510 auto leases, totaling $4.2 billion, have been originated year-to-date. This is a 17.1% decrease in accounts and a 17.4% decrease in balances, from this time last year. Auto leases accounted for 12.7% of all auto accounts originated through January, and 9.5% of balances.
• 24,920 auto leases have been originated YTD to consumers with a VantageScore® 3.0 credit score below 620. These are generally considered subprime accounts. This is a 13.5% decrease from January 2017. These newly-issued leases have a corresponding total balance of $429 million, a 13.2% decrease year-over-year.
• Through January, 9.7% of auto leases were issued to consumers with a subprime credit score. In 2017 through January the share was 9.3%.
• The average origination balance for all auto leases issued in January 2018 was $16,527. This is a 0.65% increase over January 2017. The average subprime lease amount was $17,199, a 0.20% increase from a year ago. Note that lease origination values reflect the contract amounts only and exclude expected vehicle residual values.

"It is evident that banks, captives and lenders are focused on reducing their exposure to subprime accounts in automotive, but with the economy at healthy levels, there is also a smaller pool of subprime candidates shopping for vehicles compared with several years ago," said Gunnar Blix, Deputy Chief Economist at Equifax. "There seemed to be more of a focus on pursuing subprime volume in 2017, and today lenders are looking to pull back a little and find more balance in their portfolios."

Here is the latest portfolio report and originations report.

Please let me know if we can schedule a time for you to speak with Gunnar Blix at Equifax for these and any other auto credit trends you're planning to write about.